Election Night, what to watch for.

[CATS44]

Just returned from a beautiful ten days in Pinellas County, most famous as the home of Carle. Sun, sand, beer, shrimp, beer, great music, rum, crab cakes...and beer. Stop down, let Carle give you the tour of the high spots. I only know the dives...esp the Wharf in Pass A Grille.

Anyway, Election Night is almost here, the polls are all over the place, the Donald is claiming victory all across the board, even in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. What to expect, what to watch for?

For starters, even though the polls are all over the place, a general trend has emerged over the past three days. Hillary is consolidating her base, which had been somewhat shaky, and gaining from outside her base. Trump is maintaining his base, but not adding to it. It looks like a late break for the Dems, which would follow historical trends. Late breakers tend to move to the Dems in a national election, while they tend to break to the GOP in off years.

This trend, if it actually is one, may be offset somewhat by voter suppression moves by the GOP in several key states, esp N Carolina.

The vote along the Eastern Seaboard will be telling, even in some states that have gotten little notice, such as S Carolina. But the voting may be so close in so many states that early calls in the East will be impossible. Watch for the percentages in S Carolina, which Trump will in all probability win. If Hillary stays close percentage wise, its a sign that she is performing above her polling numbers in states with high tech millenials....a good sign as the voting moves north and across the nation into states like Colorado. The same applies in a different way to Texas, which Trump will win. But if the numbers are closer than normal, it will mean that Hispanics have mobilized successfully, and that would be encouraging to Hillary in a lot of places.

Conversely, if Trump builds up a bigger margin than predicted here in Ohio, that could filter into many of the Great Lakes states.

Trump definitely needs to come close to sweeping all the 'battleground' states, plus pick up at least one of Clintons so called fire wall states....which is why everybody is campaigning in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. Trump is expressing confidence in all three, but late polling doesnt show it.

Will Trumps huge  and enthusiastic campaign crowds translate into big voter turnout, or will the famed Dem-Obama-Clinton ground game? Can Trump get low income/low education white males to vote en masse, a group that has never done so? If he can, he has a shot. Can Clinton get out the minority vote, across the spectrum? If so, she has a better shot.

If I was in the Clinton camp, my biggest worry is the unpredictabilty of this entire campaign.

If I was in the Trump camp, my biggest worry is todays Emerson College set of polls. Emerson is a solid polling enterprise that typically leans strongly Republican, by nearly 1.5%. Its polling over the weekend shows Hillary leading in nearly every battleground state, plus Florida, which is the biggest prize of all. In Ohio, Emerson has Trump ahead by only 1%. If Emerson is accurate and remains historical, Trump is in big trouble.

Two smaller , but maybe significant things to watch.....

Philadelphias transit system was under a strike, which just ended. If its up and running as usual tomorrow, its good news for Clinton. If its stuttering, it will subdue minority voting in one of the most determinant areas in the nation.

Nevadas early voting is off the charts, esp in Hispanic areas. But polling in Nevada still shows well for Trump, even though much of the vote is in. Traditionally, Hispanics get under polled and have low voter turnout. Which is the correct prediction for Nevada? Polling that generally favors Trump, or the large numbers of Latinos that have stood in line to vote already?

Legalized marijuana is on the ballot in five states, including Maine, Arizona, and Nevada, and young voters who normally might not vote may vote because of that issue. Young voters dont vote for Trump in large numbers. Those three states are competitive.

Predictions from people paid to make predictions range from a narrow...about four point...electoral college win for Trump to a resounding total of 323 for Clinton. IMO the latter is more likely than the former, but Id put the over/under at 300 for Clinton. Also IMO, if Hillary goes over 300 it means that everything is breaking her way, and she could go way over 300....perhaps as high as 340.

[buddyh]

What to expect, what to watch for?

Expect and watch for late-breaking talking points straight from dem HQ.  See above.

No matter what happens tomorrow, we're screwed.  It's either Mr. Tangerine Man, a blustering buffoon who is devoid of substance and detail on any particular policy, or a serial, conniving liar who lies about her own name and lies about lying about lying.

Our only hope is a Congress that can and will constrain the excesses of either one, both of whom are manifestly unqualified for POTUS.

[chiefy jones]

Insightful, thanks Cats.

[lee]

Remember to vote early and often. 

[buddyh]

Remember to vote early and often.

See CATS "insightful" post re: NV

[chiefy jones]

How do you find the to post what with all the books you read?

Btw, did Archie and Jughead ever get that old jalopy running?

[buddyh]

How do you find the to post what with all the books you read?

I'm retired.  I got lots o' time.  My hobbies are reading about political and military history, competitive target shooting, German Shepherds, and camping in the indescribable glory of northern AZ, NM, and southern UT.  What about you?

Btw, did Archie and Jughead ever get that old jalopy running?

I wouldn't know.  Never cared for the lame, inconsequential adventures of Archie.  I leave that to people like you.

Chiefy, why are you following me around on MC and counter-posting insults to me?  Does that make you feel like you matter to me?

[CATS44]

 Buddy: You may think its all propaganda, talking points, as you put it. You and others that have a different rooting interest always make that accusation when I post election commentary. So far, since the origination of the forums that led to this incarnation, those that have alleged such have been wrong. Thats four national and at least two local elections.

We shall see about this one.

Feel free to offer up your analysis as to how tomorrow will work out....then we all can compare us both head to head.

[buddyh]

You and others that have a different rooting interest

Geez, here we go again.  I don't have a "rooting interest" in this election.  I don't like either one of those morons.  I have made that as plain as I can; I don't know what other words that I could use that you would understand.

Feel free to offer up your analysis as to how tomorrow will work out....then we all can compare us both head to head.

I already did that in the thread "Email Redux".  Nurse Ratched will win and then you will be so happy - for a few months.

then we all can compare us both head to head

You certainly think a lot of yourself to think that tomorrow night people on this site would rush to compare us.  I mean you, the vessel of the absolute truth vs. little old me, when all I have is an opinion.  As far as my analysis goes, if you mean a 2,000 word copy-and-paste political screed, no thanks.  If you can't put it on the back of a business card, it's just mindless bloviation.

BTW: I do not wish to do anything "head to head" with you. 

[chiefy jones]

Buddy, you're the one who quoted me with, "insightful", not the other way around.

[buddyh]

Buddy, you're the one who quoted me with, "insightful", not the other way around.

Yep.  "Insightful" was a very silly- shall we say - insight.  CATS copy-and-paste was straight out of the dem playbook.  It was void of any original thought.  Emerson College?  Have you ever heard of it?  I thought not.

Look, I know that you don't think anything I have to say is worth a shit.  I'm OK with that and will sleep soundly tonight.  But don't worry, be happy, Nurse Ratched will win tomorrow night.  And then you people can experience The Rapture.

[chiefy jones]

Yep.  "Insightful" was a very silly- shall we say - insight. 

You cry that I follow you around, then when I point out that YOU....are the one who actually followed ME around, you confirm it with, "yep" calling my words "silly".

Oh, also....I like how you imply that I don't matter to you, buy you have a quote by me in your signature line.

I'm flattered.

[Shreve Legal Team]

The best of both worlds, Buchanan with SLT commentary interjections.

Patrick J. Buchanan
November 7, 2016, 9:46 pm

“If I don’t win, this will be the greatest waste of time, money and energy in my lifetime,” says Donald Trump.

Herewith, a dissent. Whatever happens Tuesday, Trump has made history and has forever changed American politics.

Though a novice in politics, he captured the Party of Lincoln with the largest turnout of primary voters ever, and he has inflicted wounds on the nation’s ruling class from which it may not soon recover. What? Listening to the GOP voters and not the donors-only gets youse the most GOP primary voters ever? But...but...muh National Review magazine, Ayn Rand...Karl Rove...Rick Wilson...Muh Hedge Fund donors...AT&T?.

Bush I and II, Mitt Romney, the neocons and the GOP commentariat all denounced Trump as morally and temperamentally unfit. Yet, seven of eight Republicans are voting for Trump, and he drew the largest and most enthusiastic crowds of any GOP nominee. But....but.....muh Bush and Romney go to all the right donors and like cheap labor from Mexico.

Not only did he rout the Republican elites, he ash-canned their agenda and repudiated the wars into which they plunged the country.Muh.....wars. WE GOTTA INVADE SYRIA NOW! Bill Kristol says so but at least Killary will give the NEO-CONS what they want

Trump did not create the forces that propelled his candidacy. But he recognized them, tapped into them, and unleashed a gusher of nationalism and populism that will not soon dissipate.America-First....bad! We are global citizens of the world 'n stuff.

Whatever happens Tuesday, there is no going back now.

How could the Republican establishment advance anew the trade and immigration policies that their base has so thunderously rejected? CUZ THEM VOTERS AINT GOIN TO THE RIGHT PARTIES IN KENNEBUNKPORT WITH NICOLLE WALLACE AND DANA PeRINO and Jeb (!)

How can the GOP establishment credibly claim to speak for a party that spent the last year cheering a candidate who repudiated the last two Republican presidents and the last two Republican nominees?

Do mainstream Republicans think that should Trump lose a Bush Restoration lies ahead? The dynasty is as dead as the Romanovs. Pat, how can youse explain this to Rich Lowry, George Will, Goldman Sachs, Ted & Heidi Cruz?

The media, whose reputation has sunk to Congressional depths, has also suffered a blow to its credibility.

Its hatred of Trump has been almost manic, and WikiLeaks revelations of the collusion between major media and Clintonites have convinced skeptics that the system is rigged and the referees of democracy are in the tank.

But it is the national establishment that has suffered most. Never! Their road to Norte Mexico may leave the middle class in tatters, but we'll always have Social Justice Warriors and muh Constitution as recited by Glenn Beck to distract the easily distractable while we pass Dodd Frank and close down small and middle sized banks.

The Trump candidacy exposed what seems an unbridgeable gulf between this political class and the nation in whose name it purports to speak. What? Kevin Williamson or Nicolle Wallace don't speak for me?

Consider the litany of horrors it has charged Trump with.

He said John McCain was no hero, that some Mexican illegals are “rapists.” He mocked a handicapped reporter. He called some women “pigs.” He wants a temporary ban to Muslim immigration. He fought with a Gold Star mother and father. He once engaged in “fat-shaming” a Miss Universe, calling her “Miss Piggy,” and telling her to stay out of Burger King. He allegedly made crude advances on a dozen women and starred in the “Access Hollywood” tape with Billy Bush.

While such “gaffes” are normally fatal for candidates, Trump’s followers stood by him through them all. Yes, Rosie O'Donnell is a fat pig, the Muzzie "Gold Stars" were Clinton donors who support Sharia Law, John McLame is a doosh, and Meghan McCain is Miss Piggy.

Why? asks an alarmed establishment. Why, in spite of all this, did Trump’s support endure? Why did the American people not react as they once would have? Why do these accusations not have the bite they once did?

Answer. We are another country now, an us-or-them country.

Middle America believes the establishment is not looking out for the nation but for retention of its power. And in attacking Trump it is not upholding some objective moral standard but seeking to destroy a leader who represents a grave threat to that power. Fear at a DC think tank or cocktail party? You betcha. I'd turn K Street into Three Mile Island if I could. Oh, but Hollywood loves cheap nannies and unlimited Mexican drugs flowing over the border.

Trump’s followers see an American Spring as crucial, and they are not going to let past boorish behavior cause them to abandon the last best chance to preserve the country they grew up in. Nah, I'll take Guatemala for $1.98, Alex. That was the dream!

These are the Middle American Radicals, the MARs of whom my late friend Sam Francis wrote.

They recoil from the future the elites have mapped out for them and, realizing the stakes, will overlook the faults and failings of a candidate who holds out the real promise of avoiding that future.

They believe Trump alone will secure the borders and rid us of a trade regime that has led to the loss of 70,000 factories and 5 million manufacturing jobs since NAFTA. They believe Trump is the best hope for keeping us out of the wars the Beltway think tanks are already planning for the sons of the “deplorables” to fight. muh....free trade. Bush and Clinton share the same agenda here....oh, never mind.

Moreover, they see the establishment as the quintessence of hypocrisy. Trump is instructed to stop using such toxic phrases as “America First” and “Make America Great Again” by elites who think 55 million abortions since Roe is a milestone of moral progress.

And what do they have in common with a woman who thinks partial-birth abortion, which her predecessor in the Senate, Pat Moynihan, called “infanticide,” is among the cherished “reproductive rights” of women?

While a Trump victory would create the possibility of a coalition of conservatives, populists, patriots and nationalists governing America, should he lose, America’s future appears disunited and grim.

But, would the followers of Donald Trump, whom Hillary Clinton has called “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic … bigots,” to the cheers of her media retainers, unite behind her should she win?Hillary loves Huma's Persian carpet

No. Win or lose, as Sen. Edward Kennedy said at the Democratic Convention of 1980, “The work goes on, the cause endures.”

[Al.]

[LA Dragon]

I voted for the library tax extension. We're going to drain the swamp also and get rid of anything that's not sports or military history related.