Massillon.com - Our Town, Our Team, Our Traditions. - More popcorn, Federal League Myths

In case you are wondering, no this isn't just another article about if we should join the Federal League... It's about if they should want us and, better yet, why they don't.

Let's start off with a quote from Yappi.com that, while only a snipet from one poster, sums up a lot of the feeling that some fans of their teams have...

From 12346

"IF a big IF Massillon joins, local police will have to beef up security when the the deviants of West Canton come to town. On the bright side the local recycling companies with be making big business with all the empty Blatz beer cans littered all over the place. Oh and local mechanics will be on call just in case the any of the transportation breaks down."

For the sake of hot hurting feelings, I'll let this statement speak for itself and will address other issues instead.

This week's topic?

--Playoff points--

While it may seem that having another team in the league that has only had 3 losing seasons since the death of disco, the hard facts of the matter speak volumes. For example, 2008 and 2009. In those two seasons alone, if Massillon was in the Federal League Canton Mckinley and Hoover would not have made the playoffs. Yes, I understand that Mckinley beat Massillon in week 10 2009 and that our level 2 points are what won Mckinley the 8th seed and the tiebreaker against Hudson... but that's only because we only had one common opponent with them.

Let's take a look at the numbers if Massillon was in the Federal League.

2009	Actual points	points +Massillon in F.L.	Position
#7 Brunswick	20.05	17.9-20.05	6-7
#8 Mckinley	17.75(L3 : 574.5)	17.3-16.70	9-10
#9 Hudson	17.75(L3 : 380.5)	17.75-18.35	6-7
#6 Hoover	21.5763	17.188	9-10

*Sylvania Southview had 17.4500 points

How I arrived at these numbers... For Brunswick and Hudson I assumed they would have replaced Perry team with 0-4 wins and the possibility Stow replaced Massillon with a team they could beat. Now, to add Massillon you have to deduct an OOC opponent from each school. For the benefit of those who would argue, I tried to only deduct schools the fed team played in week 3 or that they lost to and would not have played unless necessary. Also I did not eliminate week 1 opponents as for a 9 teams league play would begin week 2 with a rolling open week. Week 1 would remain OOC for all teams. So here are the changes I made...

Massillon defeats Lake, replacing loss to Hudson
Massillon defeats Boardman, replacing win over Chaney
Massillon defeats Jackson, pick your loss to replace
Massillon defeats GlenOak, no change
Massillon defeats Fitch, replacing win over Riverside
Massillon defeats Perry, replacing loss to Brunswick
Massillon loses to Mck, no change
Massillon defeats Hoover, (per playoff result) replacing win over Lexington*

*did not replace loss to Louisville as this rivalry game would likely still be schedule regardless of Massillon's league affiliation.

Yes, I know I have Massillon 7-1 in league play... but tell me what game would be different. Pointswise is makes no difference unless Perry, Jackson, or Lake beat Massillon and that would actually HURT Mckinley and were not likely so I did not factor it that way.

So now the sticky part... points differential for replacing Massillon wins.

Massillon would have ended up 9-1 or 8-2 depending on what team you keep. but here are the changes for the wins for wins... (note, changes made to accomdate changes above)

Stow (2-8) to Jackson (0-10) -1.2 Massillon
Firestone (4-6) to Perry (4-6) +.05 Mck
Garfield (4-6) to Fitch (3-6) -.4 Massillon, -.5 Mck
Warren (6-3-1) to Hoover (6-4) +.3 Massillon -.55 Mck
Mentor (6-4) to Boardman (6-4) -.05 Massillon -.6 Mck

Now accounting for losses turned wins

St. Ignatius to Lake (5-5) +2.85 Massillon, +.5 Mck

Here's a real kicker... Massillon would have had to pick a team to keep in their rolling OOC game, in this scenario I picked the loss to Steubenville, in the scenario where we kept a win I will pick Warren (most history). The changes below are changes to the above numbers.

Warren win replaces Steubenville Loss +3.65 Massillon, +.6 Mck

The last piece to factor is the changes in L2 wins for the league.

Check my work if you want, but here's the difference it makes

Massillon +1.5 to +5.15
Mckinley -1.05 to -.45

So let's account... Mckinley would be out and the L3 points would not have mattered at all. Another interesting side effect happens... Hoover would be knocked down to the #10 seed. How? They lose 5.5 level 1 and 32.5 L2 points exchanging Lex for Massillon and 5.5 more L2 points from the changes in Fitch for a season end loss of 4.3883 points on their average for a new total of 17.188. On top of all of this, GlenOak, losing 2 L2 wins, finishes #5 and doesn't get a week 11 home game.

Oh, and for 2008? Mck would have been outside looking in as they would have lost at least 2 level 2 wins (given Massillon would have beat 2 of Lake, Fitch, Jackson, Boardman, Perry, or GlenOak) and Ross would have passed up Mck for the #8 seed.

Do you think I am the only one in Stark County to have figured this out?

P.S. In 2007, guess what happens to GlenOak if Massillon is in the league and beats Perry?

Need more? Come back next week!

Comments

1 Re: More popcorn, Federal League Myths Written by The Midnight Rider July 02, 2010, 07:50:46 AM

It's so damn tiring to read the constant "Massillon in Fed" talk. It doesn't help when the local dish rag newspapers constantly fuel this fire. The other funny thing is for a bunch of suburbanites who hate Massillon so much, they sure as hell discuss the possibility of the Tigers joining the league an awful lot. And it sure doesn't help when you have a segment of pro-Le League Federale Canton wannabes in Massillon fueling this never ending saga.

The Le League Federale obsession is symptomatic of bigger problems in Stark County.

I've sadly come to the conclusion that Stark County just isn't a very smart place and it's being led down the commode by an old boys network aka local Democratic Party and newspapers that are complicit in promoting this mediocrity. And this mediocrity includes the local school systems and a political mentality that chases away jobs but appoints their buddies to positions of power, with the performance results of these people irrelevant in local eyes.

How many times does this league need to say no before this issue is DEAD? But it doesn't matter to the locals. For all their anti-Massillon bluster, I think deep down they want the Tigers in and any sensible Massillonian should be against joining the Canton Good Old Boys Network, which is what the Fed is part of.

You will read point after point from A.J. indicating WHY the Fed is a bad deal for the Tigers, but the dummie locals will continue to bring up the same tired points about this....just as the same tired old people and mentality runs the county. This mentality is not helpful to Massillon. The local "Stark County" Chamber of Commerce does very little in the promotion of Massillon or economic development. The "Stark County" Commissioners, all of whom are Dems from the Canton Good Old Boy Network, vote down annexation attempts for the City of Massillon.

Massillon is best served by not being a part of this "Stark County" group. We need to keep our streak of independence and those in Massillon who want to be a part of this Good Old Boys Network are wrong.

2 Re: More popcorn, Federal League Myths Written by A.J. July 02, 2010, 12:24:56 PM

I hope this article doesn't bring people to think "Hey, joining the Fed is a benefit to Massillon, look at the numbers."

While this scenario DOES improve Massillon's 2009 point total by +1.5 to +5.15, It is imporant to note that most of that change is removal of the Ignatius loss and replacing it with a win. In fact, the low end, +1.5 has us at 8-2 and the high end has us removing Steubenville too for a points change of +5.15 and 9-1, however it is important to note that 7-3 in 2009 got us a home game in the playoffs, 7-3 in the fed in 2009 would not have. In an actual comparison of the points the cutoff for us in 2009 would have been 5-5, in the Fed that number is 7-3 with an unlikely scenario of 6-4 only if certain teams win (and given the results from last year, it would not have happened.)

So no, it does not prove any benefit for Massillon other than not playing Ignatius... which we have already done in 2010. (BTW, the points difference in beating Brantford instead of losing to Ignatius in 2009 would have been +4.2)

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